Monday 14 October 2019

2019 Nobel Prize in Economics

2019 Nobel Prize in Economics awarded to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer

As a direct result of one of their studies, more than five million Indian children have benefitted from effective programmes of remedial tutoring in schools. With the prize, french development aid economist Esther Duflo has become the second woman to win the prize.

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Monday awarded Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer the prestigious Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty.”

"The research conducted by the 2019 Economic Sciences Laureates has considerably improved our ability to fight global poverty. In just two decades, their new experiment-based approach has transformed development economics, which is now a flourishing field of research," said the statement released by the Academy.

In February 2015,  Banerjee and Duflo spoke to The Indian Express about their experiments with social sector schemes in India, why NREGA does a “poor” job of identifying the needy and how RTE has contributed to worsening learning levels in schools.

Banerjee and Duflo work at Massachusetts Institute of Technology while Kremer is at Harvard University.

After today's announcement, Duflo has become the second woman to win the prize after Elinor Ostrom of the US in 2009. The Nobel win carries a 9 million-kronor ($918,000) cash award, a gold medal, and a diploma.

Last year, the prize went to William Nordhaus and Paul Romer of the US for constructing "green growth" models that show how innovation and climate policies can be integrated with economic growth.

Unlike other prizes, the Nobel prize for Economics, officially known as the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, wasn't created by the prize founder. It was created by Riksbanken, the Swedish central bank, in 1968, and the first winner was selected a year later. So far, 81 Nobel laureates in economic sciences have been awarded.

The Economics Prize wraps up the 2019 Nobel season. Last week, six Nobel prizes were given -- medicine, physics and chemistry plus two literature awards, and the coveted Peace Prize.

Austrian author Peter Handke is the winner of Nobel in literature this year and the postponed award for 2018 went to Polish author Olga Tokarczuk. Two Nobel Prizes in literature were announced as the 2018 award was delayed by one year following sex-abuse allegations that had rocked the Swedish Academy.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Peace Prize in recognition of his efforts to end his country's two-decade border conflict with Eritrea.  All but the winner of the Peace Prize receive their awards on Dec. 10 -- the anniversary of Nobel's death in 1896 -- in Stockholm. The winner of the Peace Prize receives the award in Oslo, Norway.

#Indian Express

Growth Rate _ World Bank

BBC....
#विकास_दर(Growth Rate)...
 विश्व बैंक ने दक्षिण एशिया इकनॉमिक फ़ोकस के हाल के संस्करण में कहा है कि भारत 2021 तक 6.9 फ़ीसदी की वृद्धि दर को हासिल कर लेगा और 2022 में 7.2 फ़ीसदी तक जाने का अनुमान है.

विश्व बैंक ने यह रिपोर्ट तब जारी की है जब इंटरनेशनल मॉनेटरी फंड की वार्षिक बैठक होने वाली है. भारत की वृद्धि दर लगातार दूसरे साल भी सुस्त रही.

2018-19 में वृद्धि दर 6.9 फ़ीसदी थी और इससे पहले 2017-18 में यह दर 7.2 फ़ीसदी थी. इस अवधि में इंडस्ट्रियल आउटपुट ग्रोथ में 6.9 फ़ीसदी की बढ़ोतरी थी. कृषि में 2.9 और सर्विस सेक्टर में 7.5 फ़ीसदी की वृद्धि दर थी.

2019-20 की पहली तिमाही में सर्विस सेक्टर और इंडस्ट्री दोनों में गिरावट रही. मांगों में कमी रहने के कारण यह गिरावट आई. विश्व बैंक की रिपोर्ट में चालू खाता घाटा भी 2018-19 की जीडीपी के 2.1 फ़ीसदी हो गया है.
इसके पहले यह 1.8 फ़ीसदी था. इससे साफ़ साबित होता है कि भारत का व्यापार घाटा बढ़ा रहा है. यानी भारत का आयात बिल बढ़ रहा है और निर्यात कम हो रहा है.

विश्व बैंक की रिपोर्ट के अनुसार इस साल 2018 की तुलना में निवेश में भी कमी आई है. पिछले वित्तीय वर्ष के आख़िर तक विदेशी मुद्रा भंडार 411 अरब डॉलर था. हालांकि इसी अवधि में 2018 मार्च से अक्टूबर के बीच डॉलर की तुलना में रुपए में 12 फ़ीसदी की गिरावट आई थी.

विश्व बैंक के अनुसार भारत में ग़रीबी में कमी आ रही है लेकिन पहले की तुलना में इसकी गति धीमी हुई है. 2011-12 और 2015-16 में ग़रीबी में कमी की दर 21.6 से 13.4 फ़ीसदी थी.

इस रिपोर्ट का कहना है कि ग़रीबी कम होने की दर में गिरावट जीएसटी और नोटबंदी कारण आई. इसके साथ ही ग्रामीण भारत में अर्थव्यवस्था में मंदी और युवाओं में बढ़ती बेरोज़गारी के कारण भी गति धीमी पड़ी.

विश्व बैंक ने कहा है कि पहली तिमाही में आई गिरावट के बाद ही सुस्ती के संकेत मिल गए थे. इस रिपोर्ट के अनुसार ग्रामीण भारत में आय में कमी के कारण मांग में कमी रहेगी और इससे ग्रोथ की दर प्रभावित होगी.
विश्व बैंक की रिपोर्ट में कहा गया है, ''निर्यात में बहुत वृद्धि की उम्मीद नहीं है. चीन और अमरीका के बीच जारी ट्रेड वॉर और वैश्विक ग्रोथ में सुस्ती के कारण विदेशी मांग भी कम रहेगी.''

आरबीआई के पूर्व गवर्नर रघुराम राजन ने भी शुक्रवार को कहा कि एशिया की तीसरी सबसे बड़ी अर्थव्यवस्था भारत ख़तरे में है. उन्होंने कहा कि राजस्व घाटा जितना दिखाया जा रहा है उससे कही ज़्यादा है.

अमरीका के ब्रॉन यूनिवर्सिटी में ओपी जिंदल लेक्चर में बोलते हुए रघुराम राजन ने कहा कि मोदी सरकार के पास आर्थिक दृष्टिकोण नहीं है. उन्होंने कहा कि जिस भारत की अर्थव्यवस्था 2016 की पहली तिमाही में नौ फ़ीसदी पर थी वो आज पाँच पर पहुंच गई है.

भारत की वृद्धि दर अप्रैल-जून की तिमाही में पाँच फ़ीसदी पर पहुंच गई जो पिछले 6 सालों में सबसे निचले स्तर पर है.

विश्व बैंक से पहले मूडी ने भारत की वृद्धि दर का अनुमान 6.2 फ़ीसदी से कम कर 5.8 फ़ीसदी कर दिया था. रघुराम राजन का कहना है कि मोदी सरकार का नोटबंदी का फ़ैसला घातक साबित हुआ है और जीएसटी को भी ठीक से लागू नहीं किया गया.
इससे पहले पिछले हफ़्ते ग्लोबल कॉम्पिटिटिव इंडेक्स में भी भारत पिछड़ गया था. पिछले साल भारत 58वें नंबर पर था लेकिन अब वह 68वें नंबर पर पहुंच गया है.

इस इंडेक्स में सबसे ऊपर सिंगापुर है. उसके बाद अमरीका और जापान जैसे देश हैं. ज़्यादातर अफ़्रीकी देश इस इंडेक्स में सबसे नीचे हैं.

भारत की रैंकिंग गिरने की वजह दूसरे देशों का बेहतर प्रदर्शन बताया जा रहा है. इस इंडेक्स में चीन भारत से 40 पायदान ऊपर 28वें नंबर पर है, उसकी रैंकिंग में कोई बदलाव नहीं आया है.

संगठित क्षेत्रों पर जीएसटी का असर हुआ है. पिछले ढाई साल से जब से जीएसटी लागू हुआ है तब से 1400 से अधिक बदलाव किए गए हैं. इससे संगठित क्षेत्र के लोगों में उलझन बहुत बढ़ी है.

क़रीब 1.2 करोड़ लोगों ने जीएसटी के लिए रजिस्ट्रेशन करवाया है, लेकिन सिर्फ़ 70 लाख लोग जीएसटी फाइल करते हैं और एनुअल रिटर्न सिर्फ़ 20 प्रतिशत लोगों ने फाइल किया है.

अर्थव्यवस्था में मंदी या फिर सुस्ती के चलते सरकार के टैक्स कलेक्शन में कमी आई है. पिछले साल जीएसटी में 80 हज़ार करोड़ की कमी आई और डायरेक्ट टैक्स में भी इतने की ही कमी आई.

#भाई लक्ष्मीकांत वर्मा के वाल से साभार

Sunday 1 September 2019

Prolonged consumption slowdown delaying recovery: economists


India’s prolonged consumption slowdown and a deteriorating global environment are delaying a recovery in Asia’s third-largest economy, nudging its government into action to supplement the central banks monetary stimulus.
       In a spate of announcements within a week, the government eased foreign investment rules, gave concessions on vehicle purchases and encouraged banks to make loans cheaper to spur growth from a five-year low. It also secured more fiscal space to stimulate the economy with a windfall from the central bank in excess of $24 billion.
       While the slowdown last quarter reflects, for the most part, a slump in investment before the election, high-frequency indicators since then suggest the economy’s lack of momentum has persisted.
       Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is still considering whether to use the windfall from the central bank to cut borrowings or boost spending. The other measures announced so far, like the easing of foreign investment rules, will also do little to boost consumer demand in the near term.
       Since the major contributors to the economy’s investment pie are households and private corporations, their spending hold the key for reviving broad-based investment activity in the economy, said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist at India Ratings and Research.
       Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who returned to power in May with a bigger margin than in 2014, is witnessing the worst slowdown so far under his watch. Unemployment is at a 45-year high, car sales have slumped the most in almost two decades in July and infrastructure output grew at the slowest pace in more than four years.
       “We recognise that consumption will have to be given a boost,” Sitharaman said on Thursday, adding that the government will unveil more measures that address demands from businesses.
       The Reserve Bank of India has already cut interest rates by 110 basis points this year to the lowest in nine years to boost loans and revive investment, while signalling its ready to do more. It has been pumping in liquidity to tide over a cash crunch in the banking sector.
What economists Say
       India’s slowdown is taking longer than anticipated to turn around, with the slump likely extending into the April-June quarter. The reasons — a slow roll-out of a fiscal support package for farmers, and weak transmission of the Reserve Banks rate cuts, said economist Abhishek Gupta.
       The government added to that with a decision to immediately inject 70,000 crore to recapitalise state-run banks and encourage them to lend. The moves were initially cheered by the market, but those gains faded by Thursday as concerns on the slowing local economy and trade talks between the US and China dominated investor sentiment.
       “The government has done only some tweaks to existing policies, but nothing that’s really big-bang,” said NR Bhanumurthy, an economist at New Delhi-based National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. “Markets seem to be awaiting more measures. The government should’nt keep them in waiting.”
       In the absence of any substantial fiscal stimulus, some economists feel the RBI may have to do more heavy lifting to support growth. Prakash Sakpal, an economist at ING Groep NV in Singapore, expects the central bank to cut the key rate by another 50 basis points before the end of this year.
       Despite all easing this year, there are no improvements in the monetary indicators, he said. The RBI is under pressure from the government for more interest rate and liquidity support for the economy and it will continue cutting policy rates.
Thanks to Bloonberg - The Hindu Business Line

Agri GDP growth falls: Doubling farmers’ income in next 3 years looks a tough task


While production has dropped, it has not been accompanied by a commensurate increase in price.
       Last week, while the CSO released the Q1 GDP numbers, it also showed numbers for agriculture, forestry and fishing as a segment. For the June quarter, this segment’s growth in real terms was 2 per cent, against 5.1 per cent in the same quarter of the previous year.
       Agri GDP growth has been sliding since the beginning of 2018-19. Against the 5 per cent growth reported in 2017-18, the year 2018-19 ended with a growth of 2.75 per cent.
       Though broad numbers from the Ministry of Agriculture show that the country has been doing well on crop output, dissecting it reveals that there has been a drop in production in some major food as well as non-food crops.
       Among non-food crops, take groundnut, for instance. The crop’s output for 2018-19 is estimated at 66.95 lakh tonnes against 92.53 lakh tonnes in 2017-18. Similarly, castor seed production last year was estimated at 12.15 lakh tonnes, down from 15.68 lakh tonnes in 2017-18. In the case of cotton, production has dropped, from 328 lakh bales in 2017-18 to 287 lakh bales in 2018-19.
       In the foodgrains basket, pulses, maize, bajra, ragi and all nutri cereals have seen a production drop in 2018-19.
       Until 2017-18, foodgrain production was growing robustly. If we break the last 10 years as UPA and NDA years, between 2009-10 and 2013-14, foodgrain output recorded an annualised growth of 5 per cent. This, however, reduced to 3 per cent in the NDA years between 2014-15 and 2018-19.
       While the new irrigation projects helped, monsoon failure in four of the five years (between 2014-15 and 2018-19 – two deficient and two below normal monsoon rains) had their impact on crop output.
       The slump in crop output has been slow in reflecting in price because of weak demand and in some cases because of excess inventory from previous years being available in the market, like in the case of pulses. However, prices have started moving up of late. This is what explains food inflation ticking up in the last few months and the nominal agri GDP growth at 7.9 per cent for the April-June 2019 quarter versus 6.8 per cent in the same period of the previous year.
       Weakness in domestic demand aside, demand from export orders for certain agri products was also poor, which kept prices muted. In the April-June 2019 quarter, India’s agri commodity exports were Rs 60,614 crore, down five per cent from the previous year. Export of rice, coffee and tea have been lower than last year.
Farmers’ income
       In the coming quarters, for agri GDP growth to revive, the sub-sectors in agriculture – forestry, livestock and fishing – need to show some strength.
       Otherwise, the task of doubling farmers’ income, for which just three years are left, looks difficult. The income support scheme alone can’t help.
       The higher MSPs announced haven’t really had an impact, except on paddy, wheat and some pulse crops. eNAM – the electronic National Agriculture Market scheme, which was expected to bring more buyers for a farmer’s produce, is still in a preliminary stage.
Thanks to Raj Laxmi Nirmal - The Hindu Business Line

Surplus effect: RBI may have to suck out excess liquidity


The Reserve Bank of India may need to sterilize the liquidity that will eventually find its way into the financial system once the government starts spending the staggering Rs. 1,76,051 crore surplus which was approved to be transferred by its central board last week.
In its capacity as the government’s banker and debt manager, the RBI may have to manage the surplus liquidity to stanch its possible inflationary effect.
Article Continues Below
In this regard, the RBI may resort to open market operation (O.M.O.) sales (of government securities) to suck liquidity out of the financial system, otherwise it could have implications on the inflation front, say market experts.
O.M.O. sales could be over and above the routine Reverse Repo auctions that the RBI conducts under its liquidity adjustment facility.
Under the Reverse Repo auction, banks deploy their surplus liquidity with the RBI. As part of this transaction, banks purchase securities from the RBI with an agreement to resell them to the latter on a mutually agreed future date at an agreed price which includes interest for the funds lent.
Under O.M.O., the RBI resorts to sale of securities to suck out the rupee liquidity. When the liquidity conditions are tight, RBI buy securities from the market, releasing liquidity.
Thanks to - K Ram Kumar  Mumbai


Wednesday 16 January 2019

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Dear Educators, *1 Marks Solution* is organizing a Special webinar series  on *Objective Type Questions (OTQs)*. This will include MCQs, Fil...